ARTICLE FECOMERCIO SP

In 2022, retail may grow up to 7%

Retail sales in the State of São Paulo showed a very heated performance so far. From January to April, there was a growth of 12%, which tends to increase sales in the first half of the year to something between 10% and 11%.

This behavior can be credited to the successive drop in the unemployment level. No less important is the recent trend towards lower inflation. At the same time, internal actions that have reduced state taxes are causing a significant drop in the average price of fuel at the pumps.

Families’ access to credit is also stimulating the acquisition of durable goods. At the same time, the injection of considerable amounts of money through FGTS withdrawals have a positive effect on consumption.

Considering these aspects, it is very likely that the current pace of sales growth will continue until the end of the year. The most plausible scenario is an annual growth of around 7%.

However, there are factors that may compromise the estimations: the international political scenario, the electoral environment in Brazil and the World Cup in November and December. The high level of household indebtedness may affect other commemorative dates, such as Children’s Day, which does not tend to impact the retail movement this year.

In conclusion, the factors of improvement in income and the drop in inflation tend to remain, helping the growth of consumer confidence, which should respond by maintaining a positive sales level throughout the second half of the year and allowing the year to show a positive growth rate.

Source: Eletrolar News #150