ARTICLE – FECOMERCIOSP

Retail in São Paulo maintains growth in the 1st quarter, but uncertainties are accumulating

Retail in São Paulo ended the first quarter of 2025 with a positive result, sustained by real increases of 8.7% in the accumulated figure for the year and 7.4% in the comparison between March 2025 and March 2024, according to a survey by FecomercioSP. The sector billed R$ 126 billion in the month of March, at constant prices, with relevant expansion in almost all monitored segments.

Among the highlights are the segments of auto parts (12.4%), construction materials (12.2%), and clothing (10.7%), which reveal a combination of pent-up demand, inventory replenishment, and possible seasonal effects.
However, the performance of supermarkets, which grew only 3.5% in the third month of the year, and of furniture and decoration — with an accumulated annual expansion of only 4.1% — indicates that household consumption is still selective and price-sensitive.

This good moment, however, contrasts with the more challenging macroeconomic scenario projected for the coming months. With inflation still under pressure, the increase in the Selic rate, and the slowdown in the job market in several regions of the State of São Paulo — already reflected in a downward trend in job creation —, in addition to household indebtedness, which remains high, all indications are that the second half of the year will be quite complex. Moreover, the international scenario remains unstable, with external price pressures and fiscal uncertainties in the domestic environment, which may affect consumer and business confidence.

Source: Eletrolar News #167