ARTICLE – FECOMERCIOSP
POSITIVE BUT CHALLENGING SCENARIO
What to expect from 2024? In addition to the improvement in the job market, inflation is moderate, not to mention the cycle of interest cuts, making credit cheaper. Thus, in principle, the country enters the new year with a very favorable outlook for consumers and, consequently, for commerce. Figures from FecomercioSP indicate that Brazilian retail is expected to grow 2% in 2024, and, specifically in the State of São Paulo, sales tend to rise 4%.
However, other facts may hinder this direction. The main one is the government’s fiscal issue – and the adjustment of the fiscal framework. This point is essential, as it will give investors clarity about where revenues will come from to cover the expected increase in spending in the coming years. Without this, there will be an impact on the public debt control scenario, putting pressure on interest rates and inflation, interfering (negatively) with families’ consumption capacity.
Another fact is the Tax Reform, which will increase the burden on relevant segments, such as Services. This increase will certainly have an impact on business development, with the closure of establishments and vacancies. Not to mention possible international crises, such as new regrettable conflicts, or a stronger cooling of economies such as the North American and Chinese.
Therefore, it is not trivial to carry out long-term projections in a scenario of many uncertainties. In any case, imagining the approval of a credible framework and a reform that can at least maintain the tax burden, we will see satisfactory sales for next year, with the strength of Brazilian consumption power regained post-pandemic.
Source: Eletrolar News #158
