FECOMERCIOSP

2020: the year in which holiday dates did not impact trade

Altamiro Carvalho, economic advisor at FecomercioSP

There is a lot to be said about the pandemic impact on the economy, but we must observe some structural changes that transformed the commercial seasonality. Before the pandemic, agents would lean on holidays to determine the periods of higher demand, in 2020 it was the São Paulo Plan “Plano São Paulo” that did that.

FecomercioSP compared the seasonality in the cycle before pandemic (2015-2019) with last year’s. Until then, December month was the outselling month. Transactions would increase an average of 15,1% over November the same year.

In 2020, however, the holiday dates did not dictate the pace of business. On the contrary, the seasonal structure was based on periods when stores could open their doors based on municipalities pandemic protocols. That’s why the most relevant increase of last year was registered in May (15.4%), month that recovered the sharp drop of 24.4% in April.

The former champion month of December was in 2020 the third hottest month in the sector. In terms of monthly growth, it posted 11.3% more in sales, even though it maintained its position as the month with the highest sales volume of the year.

While the pandemic continues, the industry will be not built its seasonal planning based on holiday dates, which are mostly created to increase sales. It is a fairly new scenario where sector will need to plan around when stores will be able to open their doors. 

Source: Eletrolar News Magazine #143